基层环境统计年报中的问题及建议

环境统计工作是环境保护工作中的基础,是各级政府和环境保护行政主管部门制定环境保护政策和计划、加强环境监督管理和污染防治的重要依据。本文结合日常工作经验,就目前基层环境统计工作中存在的问题进行探讨,并提出一些建议。     

Discounting in the presence of scarce ecosystem services

The discount rate for cost-benefit analysis has to take account of future scarcity of ecosystem services in consumption and production. Previous literature focuses on the first aspect and shows the importance of the relative price effect, for given growth rates of consumption and ecosystem services. This paper focuses on intermediate ecosystem services in production and shows that for limited substitutability and a low growth rate of these ecosystem services, the growth rate of consumption, and thus the discount rate, declines towards a low value. Using a Ramsey growth model, the paper distinguishes three cases. If ecosystem services can be easily substituted, the discount rate converges to the usual value in the long term. Secondly, if ecosystem services can be easily substituted in production but not in consumption, the relative price effect is important. Finally, and most interestingly, if ecosystem services cannot be easily substituted in production, the discount rate declines towards a low value and the relative price effect is less important. Another part of the previous literature has shown that a declining discount rate is the result of introducing several forms of uncertainty, but this paper reaches that conclusion from an endogenous effect on the growth rate of the economy.     

Motorcycle crashes potentially preventable by three crash avoidance technologies on passenger vehicles

Objective: The objective of this study was to identify and quantify the motorcycle crash population that would be potential beneficiaries of 3 crash avoidance technologies recently available on passenger vehicles.

Methods: Two-vehicle crashes between a motorcycle and a passenger vehicle that occurred in the United States during 2011–2015 were classified by type, with consideration of the functionality of 3 classes of passenger vehicle crash avoidance technologies: frontal crash prevention, lane maintenance, and blind spot detection. Results were expressed as the percentage of crashes potentially preventable by each type of technology, based on all known types of 2-vehicle crashes and based on all crashes involving motorcycles.

Results: Frontal crash prevention had the largest potential to prevent 2-vehicle motorcycle crashes with passenger vehicles. The 3 technologies in sum had the potential to prevent 10% of fatal 2-vehicle crashes and 23% of police-reported crashes. However, because 2-vehicle crashes with a passenger vehicle represent fewer than half of all motorcycle crashes, these technologies represent a potential to avoid 4% of all fatal motorcycle crashes and 10% of all police-reported motorcycle crashes.

Discussion: Refining the ability of passenger vehicle crash avoidance systems to detect motorcycles represents an opportunity to improve motorcycle safety. Expanding the capabilities of these technologies represents an even greater opportunity. However, even fully realizing these opportunities can affect only a minority of motorcycle crashes and does not change the need for other motorcycle safety countermeasures such as helmets, universal helmet laws, and antilock braking systems.     

生物柴油产业链分析

生物柴油是指由植物油、动物油脂等制备得到的单烷烃酯类。它是一种环境友好、清洁排放的燃料,因此是非常理想的石油柴油替代燃料。本文从生物柴油产业链中的原料来源、生产工艺、产品应用以及其效益等方面对这种新型的清洁燃料进行了简单介绍。总之,生物柴油是一种很有发展前景的生物质燃料。     

危险化学品火灾爆炸事故不安全动作分布规律研究

以我国210起典型危险化学品火灾爆炸事故为样本,对造成事故的不安全动作进行归类统计,应用云模型云发生器算法计算大类不安全动作的云模型参数值并绘制隶属云图,得出了危险化学品火灾爆炸事故中不安全动作类型和发出者分布规律及特点。结果表明:造成火源型火灾爆炸事故的违规型不安全动作平均发生次数最多,分布不均匀且不稳定,其中现场工作缺乏指导或监护发生次数最多,发出对象为监理;蓄热型火灾爆炸事故中技术型不安全动作分布表现出较大的随机性,其中物料添加不当和隐患排查不彻底发生次数最多,发出对象分别为基层人员和监理。     

Safe speed limits for a safe system: The relationship between speed limit and fatal crash rate for different crash types

Objective: The objective of this article is to provide empirical evidence for safe speed limits that will meet the objectives of the Safe System by examining the relationship between speed limit and injury severity for different crash types, using police-reported crash data.

Method: Police-reported crashes from 2 Australian jurisdictions were used to calculate a fatal crash rate by speed limit and crash type. Example safe speed limits were defined using threshold risk levels.

Results: A positive exponential relationship between speed limit and fatality rate was found. For an example fatality rate threshold of 1 in 100 crashes it was found that safe speed limits are 40 km/h for pedestrian crashes; 50 km/h for head-on crashes; 60 km/h for hit fixed object crashes; 80 km/h for right angle, right turn, and left road/rollover crashes; and 110 km/h or more for rear-end crashes.

Conclusions: The positive exponential relationship between speed limit and fatal crash rate is consistent with prior research into speed and crash risk. The results indicate that speed zones of 100 km/h or more only meet the objectives of the Safe System, with regard to fatal crashes, where all crash types except rear-end crashes are exceedingly rare, such as on a high standard restricted access highway with a safe roadside design.     

西藏自治区措勤县日阿布洗铜多金属矿床地质特征及成因类型

西藏自治区日阿布洗铜多金属矿位于冈底斯山脉北缘斑岩型铜矿成矿带,含矿斑岩体为晚喜山期花岗斑岩,具全岩矿化特征,斑岩体与构造蚀变岩带形成矿床。研究表明,地表和浅部出露含矿斑岩体只是岩枝,矿区剥蚀程度低,主斑岩体尚未出露,深部找矿潜力巨大。经深部钻孔工程及地表槽探验证,矿体品位和厚度沿走向和倾向变化系数较小,伴生组份较多,并对其资源量进行了初步估算。喜山晚期第一阶段花岗斑岩侵入体是主要成矿物质来源,矿床成因类型应为斑岩型铜矿床。     

主成分分析法在煤矿事故统计分析中的应用

为了研究我国煤矿各类事故之间的相互关系,运用主成分分析法对我国煤矿事故数据进行了统计分析,计算得到煤矿事故类型的第一主成分和第二主成分,并进一步分析了煤矿事故的主要类型以及各类事故之间的相互联系,对制定相应的煤矿事故预防措施具有一定的指导作用。     

T型氧化沟工艺处理低碳源生活污水的效果研究

详细介绍了T型氧化沟工艺的特征,并考察研究了该工艺处理低碳源生活污水的长期运行效果。研究结果表明,工艺出水COD、BOD5、NH3-N、TN和TP年平均浓度分别为13.9、3.8、0.91、18.80和1.67 mg/L,去除率分别为88.99%、94.37%、96.74%、37.57%和41.58%,均能达到相应的排放标准。由于T型氧化沟中以好氧环境为主,缺乏厌氧和缺氧环境以及进水的BOD5/TN值低,工艺对有机物及NH3-N的去除效果较好,但TN和TP去除效果较低。提出了加强工艺脱氮除磷的措施,为同类型污水处理厂改造提供参考。     

利用卫星资料估算我国西北地区直接辐射

在缺乏直接辐射、云量、日照时数等地面观测资料情况下,如何正确估算太阳直接辐射对太阳能合理开发利用有重要意义。利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、EOS-AURA卫星和FY-2C气象卫星反演资料,采用一个改进的宽带辐射传输模型对我国西北5个地面辐射站点2006年和2007年直射日曝辐量进行了估算。模型首先在Bird模型基础上对晴空条件下的太阳直接辐射进行了计算,然后结合FY-2C气象卫星总云量和云类反演数据,引入了一个线性方程,对实际天气状况下的直射日曝辐量进行了计算。结果表明:5个站点模拟的直射日曝辐量与实测值均存在较好一致性,评价效率系数NSE介于0.68~0.8,而对月均直射日曝辐量的模拟结果则显示模型在4-10月的估算精度要高于11-3月结果。